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Finally got a good week going on the overall picks in Week 3, so let's keep it rolling into Week 4, a very tough layout for picking NFL games. Virtually all of the spreads are under a touchdown, with only the Pack/Pats line climbing into double digits.

The ' loss Thursday means there's only one remaining undefeated team -- Philly -- and we continue to see an outrageous amount of parity across the entire league. 

It only makes picking a slate of games that much tougher, but let's give it a try anyway. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 4 Picks

at (London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
TV
: NFLN | Stream: Fubo (click here)

Latest Odds: New Orleans Saints +4

Early morning London football! The thing you never missed and yet somehow didn't realize you wanted. The first international game is always so jarring -- it's like when there's a random 11 a.m. ET college football game and you're completely thrown for a loop. This line is extremely stinky. Minnesota is less than a three-point favorite against a Saints team that needed a miracle Week 1 rally against the to avoid 0-3 with a bad loss against Tampa Bay and a VERY bad loss against the . This feels like a situation where starts and we get Spiderman Meme'd to death with him battling in not-quite-prime time. Weird feeling the Saints steal something here even though the Vikings are the better overall team. 

The pick: Saints 21, Vikings 17
Props, Best Bets: Saints +2.5

at

Sunday,1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds: Baltimore Ravens +3

If this game doesn't turn into a crazy shootout with one of or surging to the forefront of the MVP race, it will be really disappointing. The Bills and Ravens have defensive issues and are two of the most explosive teams in football. Both were roundly criticized for accuracy and passing skills coming into the 2018 draft and both have emerged as clear dominant forces. Rashod Batemen and are answering questions about Baltimore's receiving corps. The Bills have some lethal quick-score options as well. It's probably square but the over feels like a lock here. 

The Pick: Ravens 35, Bills 31
Bets: Ravens +3, Over 51

at Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds: Atlanta Falcons +1

Are the Falcons better than we thought? This will be an interesting test game against a 2-1 Browns team lingering quite large with coming back. The Browns are second in rush DVOA on offense and the Falcons are a bottom five team in rush defense by DVOA (worth noting: usually it's best to wait four weeks for adjusted stats on that based on Football Outsiders reevaluating preconceived biases). Cleveland's defense has been lacking and it's hard to imagine is playing this Sunday; it's great news he's doing well as he is. Despite the rushing matchup, Atlanta is going to hang in this game and maybe find a way to steal it.

The Pick: Falcons 24, Browns 21
Bets: Pass

at

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds: New York Giants -3

Looking at this 39.5 total, it's hard to tell whether or not it's simply these two offenses or the possibility of hurricane weather coming in that direction. My thinking is the former. The Bears are an improbable 2-1 ... but so are the Giants! I've heard multiple people suggest (shoutout my new buddies from RGA) played his best game as a pro against the on Monday night. He was pressured 26 times on 36 dropbacks, just an insane number. is on an absolute bender right now with 27 (!) tackles in his last two weeks. He's the difference maker here, as is the Bears ground game.

The Pick: Bears 17, Giants 14
Bets: Bears

at

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5

Two of my three favorite teams from 2022 squaring off in a difficult game to pick. The Jaguars are the only team in the entire NFL with a top-five offense and defense by DVOA. Doug Pederson, a.k.a. "NUM" a.k.a. (Not Urban Meyer) has some big time Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco 2011 vibes. But I'm not sure this week is the max-out spot for the Jags, even in a Doug Pederson Revenge Game. The Eagles are simply just very good, and their defense can lock people down late when it's clicking.

The Pick: Eagles 27, Jaguars 17
Bets: Pass

at

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds: Detroit Lions -3

The Lions are a fun team, but there are a lot of injuries on offense -- and Amon Ra St. Brown are out -- and the defense is capable of letting anyone storm through the back door. We could look back at this game and point to the seventh seed in the NFC. 

The Pick: Lions 27, Seahawks 24
Bets: Pass

at

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds: Houston Texans +5.5

has to remain a question mark, almost as big a question mark as keeping Justin Herbert in the game when the Chargers were up not only three but four scores. Brandon Staley is a good coach, but it feels like he abandoned his principles this season and maybe it has him a little shook? There's zero reason Herbert should have played as much as he did. The Texans are 0-2-1 but have been in every game they've played. I think they are live for an upset here courtesy of a big game from Damion Pierce.

The Pick: Texans 27, Chargers 24
Bets: Texans +5

at  

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Steelers are not good on offense, but the Jets are really bad on offense. The under here is probably a pretty good look even if the total is sub 40. There's a chance this becomes the game, although Mike Tomlin's seemed pretty set on continuing to roll with Mitchell Trubisky as his quarterback. I'm taking the Steelers but by no means am I confident with it. 

The Pick: Steelers 20, Jets 15
Bets: No bets

at

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds: Indianapolis Colts -4

This a huge AFC South game -- the winner ends up likely getting a little bit of a leg up on the Jaguars, assuming the Eagles take care of business. Indy has the better overall roster/team, I think. The Titans can get a ton of interior pressure with Jeffrey Simmons and that should disrupt enough to keep this division battle close. 

The Pick: Colts 20, Titans 17
Bets: No bets

at Cowboys

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: 
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds: Dallas Cowboys -3

Dallas is a remarkable 2-1 despite rolling out at QB the last few weeks. Washington got stomped by the Eagles last week, but I'm not sure they're as bad as they looked against Philly. The Eagles might simply be the best team in football. The Cowboys defense could be a big problem pressure-wise here, but I think Washington can keep it close enough with throwing the ball downfield in the second half. It's also fair to wonder if we might see some adjustment from defenses against Rush and perhaps a correction. 

The Pick: WFT 21, Cowboys 17
Bets: N/A

at Panthers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds: Carolina Panthers -1

Nasty little plot twist for the Cardinals who find themselves at 1-2 and an underdog on the road against a Panthers team no one thinks is particularly great. Carolina could be 2-1 pretty easily however, and the defense is playing at a pretty high level. and the Cardinals offense is operating in an unsustainable fashion and against a Panthers defense with enough speed to contain and chase down Kyler Murray, this is a spot for Matt Rhule to flip some of the FCF (first coach fired) pressure onto Kliff Kingsbury, whose offseason contract extension looms awkwardly at the moment.

The Pick: Panthers 20, Cardinals 17
Bets: Pass

at

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds: Las Vegas Raiders -2.5

The Raiders are an incredibly desperate team -- the only 0-3 team in the NFL -- getting ready to host the ... first place Denver Broncos. 's struggled badly on deep passes and he and Nathaniel Hackett simply can't get on the same page. Hackett's in-game decision making has obviously lacked a certain competence. For that reason give me the Raiders to find a way to win this game, even though it's difficult to be confident in their defense. needs a signature performance here.

The Pick: Raiders 31, Broncos 24
Bets: Raiders -3

at

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds: Green Bay Packers -9.5

is "day to day" according to Bill Belichick, who had some interesting media sessions this week. There are rumors about him wanting to force his way out on the field for this game, but I'm not sure it matters when looking at the handicap here. on a bigger stage (key CBS game on Sunday afternoon) against Belichick with the Packers offense starting to get rolling and the defense playing outstanding football. The Patriots simply aren't very good right now and vs. an injured Mac won't change that much. 

The Pick: Packers 24, Patriots 7
Bets: Pass

at

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: 
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2

The Super Bowl Revenge Game! The Chiefs are favored here but it could simply be a result of expectation for the game being moved to a neutral site. That's not the case, with Tampa clear of Hurricane Ian much sooner than expected. is back, is in prime time at home and the Bucs defense should still be able to give Mahomes some fits. 

The Pick: Buccaneers 28, Chiefs 27
Bets: Buccaneers 

at

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: 
ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds: San Francisco 49ers -2

Really wanted to make the Rams a best bet this week, but Kyle Shanahan's history of dominating L.A. just has me too concerned. The Rams got their offense going against Arizona to the tune of 7.4 yards per play last week. San Francisco offers a much tougher defensive test. Unfortunately so do the Rams and hasn't looked great since taking over for . Making matters worse is absence. I'll buck trends and take the Rams to steal this one on the road in prime time.

The Pick: Rams 24, 49ers 21
Bets: Pass