NFL Week 13 picks: Why Titans cover, and more against the spread best bets from Las Vegas SuperContest expert - SportsLine.com
NFL Week 13 picks: Why Titans cover, and more against the spread best bets from Las Vegas SuperContest expert
A 4-1 week in the SuperContest puts me at 16-8-1 in that competition over the last five weeks, and while that's not going to be good enough to get in position to finish in the top 30 more than likely, it does help overcome a rough start in which I failed to reach three points (out of five) in four of the first seven weeks. Mini-contest prizes are still in play (two three-week periods and one six-week period), and competing in those could suddenly put the top 30 in view.
Our one miss last week in the SuperContest was the Seahawks, who were in position to cover until the final two minutes when the Raiders tied the game with a touchdown and then won it with another score in overtime. That Seattle defense is apparently nowhere near as solid as I thought it was heading into last week, and Seattle has now surrendered 995 yards in its last two games.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing an underdog that has been money in these situations: the Tennessee Titans +5 at the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have a strong team with an offense that can run all over opponents, but Tennessee is third in yards per rush allowed, so Philadelphia is likely going to need to lean more on the passing game than it has in recent weeks. That's not necessarily a reason to fade the Eagles with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith catching passes from Jalen Hurts, but it does mean that they won't necessarily get to do whatever they want on the offensive side of the ball. Their defense has been suspect in recent weeks as well, giving up 32 and 33 points in Philadelphia's last two home games. If Jordan Davis is back, that'll certainly help, but their issue go beyond one player when you consider it was Washington and Green Bay putting up those big numbers -- both teams are averaging fewer than 20 points scored per game.
Then you have the Titans, who lost a game in regulation last week for the first time since Week 2 and just the second time overall. That's despite having to turn to a rookie quarterback in Malik Willis that severely limited how the offense could operate and then having to deal with Ryan Tannehill playing at less than 100% as he continued to recover from his injury. Long story short, the Titans know how to win games, and historically under Mike Vrabel that's been the case even in games they're supposed to lose. When tapped as an underdog of more than three points, the Titans under Vrabel are 16-6 ATS with 14 outright wins. They've also won six straight games when underdogs of more than three points but less than seven, going 13-4 ATS in that situation over the last five years with Vrabel at coach.
Basically, the Titans have had continue success as moderate underdogs, and I like that to continue here against an Eagles team that hasn't look as good in recent weeks as it did over the first half of the season.
Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.So which teams should you back in Week 13? And which underdogs could win outright?...